Wine investment: Italy outperforms the market

Prices on the wine secondary market have continued to look fragile, according to the May market report from Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade. Its headline Liv-ex 100 and Liv-ex 1000 indices dipped by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively in April, and were down by 15% and 15.6% over 12 months. One highlight, though, was the Italy 100 index, which rose 0.7% in April and has also outperformed the Liv-ex 100 and 1000 indices over two years (see chart below). [subscriber-content]Liv-ex reported price rises for several Italian wines in April, including Giacomo Conterno’s Monfortino Barolo Riserva 2010 and 2013, as well as SuperTuscans Masseto 2017, Solaia 2015 and Sassicaia 2017. Despite ongoing price uncertainty, Nick Pegna, global head of wine and spirits at Sotheby’s, told Decanter in May that he was encouraged by recent bidding activity in the group’s Hong Kong auctions. ‘If things are priced correctly, there’s still a lot of interest out there,’ he said. Pegna reiterated the importance of setting price estimates at a level that would tempt prospective buyers. ‘One thing that we are really clear on is that if you go in with low estimates – if you are the person who has agreed to sell to the auction house – you end up getting a better result than a high estimate, because you’re encouraging that bidding activity in the room.’ His comments came after Sotheby’s announced record wine and spirits auction sales of $159m (£126.6m) in 2023. [breakout] Buyers snap up desirable wines from Le Gavroche cellar A Christie’s auction of wines from recently closed London restaurant Le Gavroche has fetched nearly £1.9m in sales. All 670 wine lots from the celebrated restaurant’s cellars found buyers, said Christie’s. A seven-bottle lot of Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, Richebourg Grand Cru 1993 sold for £35,000, including buyer’s premium – significantly above its pre-sale high estimate of £22,000. Two magnums of Château Lafite Rothschild 1945 sold for £15,000, versus a high estimate of £8,000. A collection of four magnums of Krug Champagne, from the 1971 and 1975 vintages, also sold for £9,375 (high estimate £8,500). ‘The exceptionally strong result is a fitting tribute to the impeccable cellar of Le Gavroche,’ said Tim Triptree MW, Christie’s international director of wines & spirits, and Adam Bilbey, Christie’s global head of wine and spirits. [/breakout] Spotlight on: Champagne A sedate Champagne market may still yield opportunities, following price declines on prestige cuvées and evidence of rising interest in grower-producer labels. Price declines for top prestige cuvée Champagnes appeared to have levelled off in the first half of 2024, while remaining significantly higher than six years ago (see chart), according to transaction data from Bordeaux Index’s LiveTrade online trading platform. Its Champagne index tracked several top names, including Dom Pérignon, RoedererCristal, Krug, Salon and Taittinger Comtes de Champagne. At Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade, the Champagne 50 index still dropped by 0.9% in value in April, however. It was down 15.4% over one year, with Cristal 2008, Krug 2008 and Salon 2012 falling more than 20%. Matthew O’Connell, CEO of Bordeaux Index’s LiveTrade, said there were potentially opportunities for buyers in Champagne back-vintages that have ‘come off quite a lot’ in price. Yet, he also added Champagne prices were ‘unlikely to rocket back up’ while trading activity remains muted. Nick Pegna, global head of wine and spirits at Sotheby’s, said there is an expanded market for older Champagne at auction: ‘I think mature Champagne is considerably more appealing to a growing number of buyers.’ Sotheby’s will host its first Champagne-only auction in June, in Paris, as part of its Epicurean’s Atlas series of sales from the cellar of collector Pierre Chen. Grower Champagne: a segment to watch Pegna also highlighted rising enthusiasm for grower Champagne: ‘It’s exciting because it’s bringing a slightly different crowd into the world of Champagne.’ Auction house iDealwine recently reported strong sales increases on certain grower Champagnes in 2023, including Cédric Bouchard, Romain Hénin, Egly Ouriet, Emmanuel Brochet and Jérôme Prévost. Its latest annual Barometer report named grower Jacques Selosse as its top-selling Champagne producer by value last year, too. Sales hit €425,778 (£366,000), well ahead of Dom Pérignon on €215,877. Production volumes are small, though, and grower Champagnes are relatively untested on the secondary market beyond a few established names, such as Selosse or Pierre Péters. ‘We’re not yet at the stage where people have lots and lots in their collections,’ Pegna stated. The Bordeaux Index view Fine wine & spirits specialist Bordeaux Index kindly sponsors this section of Decanter, and provides its view on the market here every issue. It can be found at bordeauxindex.com. Top Champagnes were the greatest beneficiary (even more than Burgundy) heading out of the pandemic, as the global re-opening plus new consumers of what is clearly a luxury product drove a step-change in demand. Gains over the five-year period to late 2022 meant prices had effectively doubled. It is natural that following such stark price changes, there is a partial settling of prices – for Champagne in this cycle that leaves the five-year gain at around +70% overall, which means that, while down from those 2022 highs, prices are in a very different context to previously. Our expectation is that current levels are a point from which to build upwards again – market activity is currently muted and this has led to price ‘drift’: something very different to sustained selling from Champagne owners. A significant dynamic in the Champagne market remains the very strong 2012, 2013 and 2014 vintages: these have increased market supply, while also potentially puzzling buyers who often like a ‘five-star’ vintage to focus on. At the same time, the age/price curve has flattened such that, for example, 2002 and 2004 look particularly good value for strong, ready-to-drink vintages. 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